The Digital Reader

The head of Kobo Books posted a list of 10 predictions a couple days ago. The full list is worth a read, but I don’t agree with all of his predictions.

1. A $99 eReader.

That will definitely happen this year. The sub $200 price point is crowded; market pressure is going to force prices down.

2. The $4.99 Bestseller.

Nope. Barring some stroke of luck like Oprah picking the title for her book club, this won’t happen. The title will have to be out as a mmpb at the very least (ebooks don’t sell enough), and paperbacksa are standardized at a much higher price point.

3. Amazon Launches the Super Kindle.

No. Amazon has repeatedly bought an innovative company and then used that company’s work to make an adequate product (Mobipocket, Audible). A super Kindle requires true innovation.  (But then again, if the Mirasol rumors are true…)

4. We’ll see a growing population in the Millennium Club in 2010 (ebook readers with more 1000 ebooks in their libraries)

This is a truism. We’ve already got a growing Millennium Club.

5. Google Announces Google Editions. Again. And (a picture of) a Tablet.

and again and again and again …

6. We will share our eBooks in 2010.

Nope. Publishers won’t let it happen.

7. Over 15 million new eReaders sold in 2010.

Maybe, but only if we’ve hit the tipping point on device sales and they follow an exponential pattern. I expect device sales to grow linearly, so I’d say not.

8. By 2015, At least 50% of eBook sales will come from entrants that don’t even sell hardcopy books today.

I’m not going to comment. A 5 year prediction is too far out to be taken seriously.

9. The Google Book Settlement (G.B.S., let your imagination run with other meanings for the acronym) saga continues. World governments, competitors, authors continue to block Google Books Settlement.

Yes. So long as Google is trying to pirate everyone’s IP, the saga will continue.

10. We’ll look back at 2009 as the zenith of hardcopy book sales in America.

Nah. We’re not at the tipping point yet.